Interview with Karim Mezran Edward Ferrazzani
taken from The Western
February 24, 2011
Libya. Peaceful demonstrators.
Libya is one step away from the brink. Cyrenaica is no longer controlled by Saddam. Who are the new leaders of Libya, or any portion of it? And the news we receive reliable? We talk to Mezran Karim, associate professor of Middle East studies at the headquarters of the John Hopkins University in Bologna and director of the Center for American Studies in Rome. The academic Italian-Libyan in no doubt about Gaddafi regime and its future: "Nothing will ever be."
Prof. Mezran how much of Libya forces still control "fideists" Colonel Gaddafi?
Watch all antennas with family, friends and contacts I have in Libya, I could not yet verify the authenticity of at least half of the information that Al Jazeera & co. are sending around. What's going on, I can not understand. What is certain is that the information that we come from Libya, are not very reliable: the famous battalions would march on Benghazi, to my knowledge, there would be no; it was said that the Permanent Representative of Libya to the UN he would resign, but what actually resigned, the vice-representative. In short, the news circulating around it a lot, and their corroboration is not easy.
But on the 'ground' What happens? You have more information?
From my sources in Tripoli, no one has confirmed the bombing by Libyan jet aviation. I was rather confirmed in Tripoli by protesters machine-gunned from helicopters. I bring a personal testimony: My cousin brought his mother in the countryside, leaving behind Tripoli, and on the way found dead on the road, some villages that crossed his way had fallen into the hands of insurgents. In short, there were clashes. The extent of the clashes, no one can still say with certainty what is happening.
No certainty anyway?
The only certainty so to speak, is that it seems that actually Cyrenaica has fallen into the hands of insurgents. Now there is, as noted, a self-proclaimed 'Islamic Emirate of Libya East'. The insurgency in Cyrenaica tells us something very important: for too many days has given credence to the spontaneity of the revolt. And maybe some will even state. But the attack on the barracks in Al Beida, which allowed the capture of tanks, weapons and ammunition, has not been done by the insurgents. According to sources in the Libyan government, therefore, information taken with due prudence, was taken from a well-organized Islamist militia group. Two of them have also been taken: it is a Tunisian and a Sudanese. The very fact that once conquered Al Beida, they immediately proclaimed 'the Islamic Emirate', concern and bringing discredit upon the spontaneity of the Libyan addressed, at least in some specific cases, such as Cyrenaica precisely.
In Benghazi, the most important city of Cyrenaica, the situation seems unclear?
Benghazi would not fall into the hands of Islamists. The city would be in the hands of a former interior minister, ex-commander of the paratroopers, Abdel Fattah Yunis, the subsidiary. It is also said that Benghazi is no water, no electricity, no food, because under siege. It is not clear who would have to keep it under siege. And then there's the issue of troops. Because the troops loyal to Colonel Qaddafi, the bulk of the troops of the regime, has not yet been used? The Libyan dictator is not a man to impress or to be particularly careful to employ more tools of war against its people. Unfortunately we have become accustomed to everything.
All the fighting in Libya put an end to the heroic Gaddafi. Who after him?
Nothing will ever be, and none of her children is really credible. I do not think there is a political figure in Libya today that it can actually take the heavy baton of Colonel Gaddafi. The scheme as a whole, to be at risk and there is no possibility that someone could actually save it. Not even the promise at the last minute of Gaddafi's ghostly administrative reforms, promises of greater openness towards young people and so on, have no more sense now.
Defections in the navy and air force to Malta for the most part, they say something about the posture of the army or they are isolated cases of 'conscientious objection'?
Look We could dwell long and speculate on any parties in the armed forces (which, moreover, exist everywhere). But I think the defections spoken of these days, are often subsidiaries of individual considerations, individual officers, who, we assume, received orders to fire on civilians or infrastructure frequented by civilians, are unwilling to press the button . You know, the country is small. Libya is a country with few inhabitants, slightly more than 5 million in all. If you shoot on a city, the real risk of fire on your cousin or your friend, especially if you are a resident of the city that you sort of bomb. It 's a very understandable sentiment.
Look Prof. Mezran, the Minister Foreign Affairs Franco Frattini said the other day in an interview in Corriere that "when there is the collapse of the country Libya, we will have a wave of at least 200-300 thousand Libyan immigrants on Italian shores." It 'a likely scenario in his view?
Look it seems to me this whole crazy story of immigration and the freak wave of illegal immigrants on Italian shores Libyans. Not because actually there is a chance that this happens. At most I can understand the concern. But here the problem is that if the collapse of the Libyan regime does indeed occur, we will continue to Libya, a country of 5 million people, is not self-sufficient in terms of food and water from a point of view. In short, a country potentially in the lurch. Do you think that the problem is immigration?
